High(er) for longer

The trajectory for central banks

As we received the final nonfarm payrolls before the Fed offers its next interest rate decision, the conversation has turned to semantics – will rates remain ‘high for longer’ or ‘higher for longer’?

Opening his team's monthly economic and financial analysis, ING global head of macro research Carsten Brzeski suggested their base case scenario sits at ‘high' rather than ‘higher', predicting the Fed, ECB and BoE are likely done with hikes. However, this was published yesterday, ahead of today's revelation that US jobs growth had not just been in positive territory, but almost doubled expectations. A recession is (very probably) coming Markets had been anticipating 170,000 jobs to be added, but with the figures showing 336,000, those very markets rejigged their expectations from n...